South-central Texas · Texas
Edwards Aquifer
Is the Edwards Aquifer running dry?
Edwards Aquifer serves about 2.5 million people and underpins roughly $5B of agriculture across Texas. This model puts its probability of reaching crisis conditions at 53.2% by 2100 (95% CI 52.7%–53.6%), making it the highest-risk system in this analysis. Expected crisis year is approximately 2058. Measured water levels are falling about 0.05 ft/yr.
Key figures
| Crisis probability by 2040 | 12.2% |
|---|---|
| Crisis probability by 2060 | 32.0% |
| Crisis probability by 2100 | 53.2% (95% CI 52.7%–53.6%) |
| Expected crisis year | 2058 |
| Observed decline rate | 0.0548 ft/yr |
| Latest observed level | 99.24 (2025) |
| Year-to-year volatility | 19.270 |
| Drought persistence φ (AR(1)) | 0.2641 |
| Population served | 2.5M |
| Agricultural value | $5B |
| Modelled annual damage at crisis | $2.75B |
Monitoring wells in this system
Aquifer averages hide local stress. These are the Edwards wells that appear in the 20 most at-risk sites nationally.
| Well | State | Decline (ft/yr) | P(crisis) 2060 | Expected crisis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seco Creek Well | TX | 2.70 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| Western Oak | TX | 2.38 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| Parkwood Park | TX | 1.89 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| Z DED | TX | 2.42 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| AY-68-28-516 | TX | 1.79 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| AY-68-28-406 | TX | 1.63 | 100.0% | 2026 |
| JY-65-26-812 | TX | 0.81 | 67.8% | 2045 |
| JY-65-26-520 | TX | 0.80 | 90.3% | 2035 |
How to read these numbers
Crisis probabilities are modelled, not measured: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths per aquifer combining AR(1) drought persistence with CMIP6 warming and demand-supply coupling. Observed decline rates and water levels are measured from USGS monitoring wells. A low aquifer-average probability does not mean local wells are safe — the well table above frequently disagrees with the system average. Full method on the science page, and every input is traceable through the research index.