Urgency index
Groundwater Depletion Hotspots
Ranked by urgency score, the most stressed groundwater region in this analysis is Central Valley in California, where 81.41% of 624 monitored wells are falling at an average of 1.96 ft/yr, giving a projected critical year of 2051. Urgency here weighs the rate of decline, the share of wells affected, and what is economically exposed — so a region can rank high on decline while its aquifer-average crisis probability still looks modest.
All 10 regions ranked
| # | Region | Urgency | Wells declining | Decline | Critical year | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central ValleyCalifornia | 85.2 | 81.41% of 624 | 1.96 ft/yr | 2051 | HIGH |
| 2 | OgallalaWyoming | 60.7 | 80% of 95 | 1.34 ft/yr | 2058 | LOW |
| 3 | OgallalaNew Mexico | 59.8 | 76.24% of 101 | 1.33 ft/yr | 2058 | MEDIUM |
| 4 | OgallalaTexas | 59.0 | 75.18% of 137 | 1.27 ft/yr | 2058 | HIGH |
| 5 | OgallalaOklahoma | 57.9 | 73.26% of 86 | 1.22 ft/yr | 2058 | LOW |
| 6 | OgallalaColorado | 57.5 | 69.61% of 102 | 1.24 ft/yr | 2058 | MEDIUM |
| 7 | Mississippi EmbaymentMississippi | 54.3 | 74.38% of 121 | 1.66 ft/yr | 2055 | MEDIUM |
| 8 | Basin RangeArizona | 51.5 | 88.46% of 156 | 2.61 ft/yr | 2047 | HIGH |
| 9 | EdwardsTexas | 27.5 | 46.79% of 156 | 0.71 ft/yr | 2078 | HIGH |
| 10 | Denver BasinColorado | 18.4 | 68.97% of 203 | 1.01 ft/yr | 2063 | MEDIUM |
Region by region
Central Valley — California
Rank 1 of 10 · urgency 85.22 · high confidence
81.41% of the 624 wells monitored in California are declining, at an average 1.96 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2051 — about 25 years out. Roughly 6.5M people and $45B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.84B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 624
- Declining
- 81.41%
- Decline rate
- 1.96 ft/yr
Ogallala — Wyoming
Rank 2 of 10 · urgency 60.69 · low confidence
80% of the 95 wells monitored in Wyoming are declining, at an average 1.34 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2058 — about 32 years out. Roughly 2.1M people and $35B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.43B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 95
- Declining
- 80%
- Decline rate
- 1.34 ft/yr
Ogallala — New Mexico
Rank 3 of 10 · urgency 59.84 · medium confidence
76.24% of the 101 wells monitored in New Mexico are declining, at an average 1.33 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2058 — about 32 years out. Roughly 2.1M people and $35B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.43B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 101
- Declining
- 76.24%
- Decline rate
- 1.33 ft/yr
Ogallala — Texas
Rank 4 of 10 · urgency 58.95 · high confidence
75.18% of the 137 wells monitored in Texas are declining, at an average 1.27 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2058 — about 32 years out. Roughly 2.1M people and $35B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.43B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 137
- Declining
- 75.18%
- Decline rate
- 1.27 ft/yr
Ogallala — Oklahoma
Rank 5 of 10 · urgency 57.92 · low confidence
73.26% of the 86 wells monitored in Oklahoma are declining, at an average 1.22 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2058 — about 32 years out. Roughly 2.1M people and $35B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.43B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 86
- Declining
- 73.26%
- Decline rate
- 1.22 ft/yr
Ogallala — Colorado
Rank 6 of 10 · urgency 57.45 · medium confidence
69.61% of the 102 wells monitored in Colorado are declining, at an average 1.24 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2058 — about 32 years out. Roughly 2.1M people and $35B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $1.43B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 102
- Declining
- 69.61%
- Decline rate
- 1.24 ft/yr
Mississippi Embayment — Mississippi
Rank 7 of 10 · urgency 54.29 · medium confidence
74.38% of the 121 wells monitored in Mississippi are declining, at an average 1.66 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2055 — about 29 years out. Roughly 3.8M people and $12B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $0.49B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 121
- Declining
- 74.38%
- Decline rate
- 1.66 ft/yr
Basin Range — Arizona
Rank 8 of 10 · urgency 51.50 · high confidence
88.46% of the 156 wells monitored in Arizona are declining, at an average 2.61 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2047 — about 21 years out. Roughly 4.1M people and $4.5B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $0.18B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 156
- Declining
- 88.46%
- Decline rate
- 2.61 ft/yr
Edwards — Texas
Rank 9 of 10 · urgency 27.48 · high confidence
46.79% of the 156 wells monitored in Texas are declining, at an average 0.71 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2078 — about 52 years out. Roughly 2.8M people and $2.5B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $0.10B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 156
- Declining
- 46.79%
- Decline rate
- 0.71 ft/yr
Denver Basin — Colorado
Rank 10 of 10 · urgency 18.35 · medium confidence
68.97% of the 203 wells monitored in Colorado are declining, at an average 1.01 ft/yr. On that trajectory the region reaches critical condition around 2063 — about 37 years out. Roughly 3.2M people and $1.2B of agriculture sit above it, with modelled drought damage of $0.05B per year.
- Wells monitored
- 203
- Declining
- 68.97%
- Decline rate
- 1.01 ft/yr
Reading the confidence column
Confidence reflects how many wells stand behind the estimate, not how bad the outcome is. Ogallala, WY ranks second on urgency but carries low confidence on 95 wells — the decline is real but the projected year is loosely constrained. Central Valley and Basin Range carry high confidence on 624 and 156 wells respectively. Treat low-confidence critical years as directional. Full method on the science page.