Five major systems
US Aquifers, Ranked by Risk
The five aquifer systems in this analysis serve roughly 24.5 million people and underpin about $110B of agriculture. They are not equally at risk, and the ranking by probability is not the ranking by economic exposure.
| Aquifer | P(crisis) 2100 | Expected crisis | Decline | People | Agriculture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdwardsTexas | 53.2% | 2058 | 0.05 ft/yr | 2.5M | $5B |
| FloridanFL, GA, SC, AL | 36.3% | 2066 | 0.02 ft/yr | 10M | $8B |
| Central ValleyCalifornia | 17.3% | 2068 | 3.07 ft/yr | 6.5M | $50B |
| Mississippi EmbaymentAR, MS, LA, MO, TN | 0.226% | 2074 | 0.99 ft/yr | 3M | $12B |
| OgallalaNE, KS, TX, OK, CO, NM, WY, SD | 0.0% | — | 0.96 ft/yr | 2.5M | $35B |
Crisis probabilities are modelled output from 100,000 Monte Carlo paths per aquifer; decline rates are measured from USGS monitoring wells. A low system-wide probability can still contain individual wells already past threshold — see each aquifer page for well-level detail.