Southeastern United States · FL, GA, SC, AL
Floridan Aquifer
Is the Floridan Aquifer at risk?
Floridan Aquifer serves about 10 million people and underpins roughly $8B of agriculture across FL, GA, SC, AL. This model puts its probability of reaching crisis conditions at 36.3% by 2100 (95% CI 35.9%–36.7%), making it a materially at-risk system on the modelled horizon. Expected crisis year is approximately 2066. Measured water levels are falling about 0.02 ft/yr.
Key figures
| Crisis probability by 2040 | 2.8% |
|---|---|
| Crisis probability by 2060 | 15.6% |
| Crisis probability by 2100 | 36.3% (95% CI 35.9%–36.7%) |
| Expected crisis year | 2066 |
| Observed decline rate | 0.0187 ft/yr |
| Latest observed level | 36.39 (2025) |
| Year-to-year volatility | 8.266 |
| Drought persistence φ (AR(1)) | 0.7285 |
| Population served | 10M |
| Agricultural value | $8B |
| Modelled annual damage at crisis | $7.4B |
Monitoring wells in this system
Aquifer averages hide local stress. These are the Floridan wells that appear in the 20 most at-risk sites nationally.
| Well | State | Decline (ft/yr) | P(crisis) 2060 | Expected crisis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-431 | SC | 1.60 | 82.5% | 2044 |
How to read these numbers
Crisis probabilities are modelled, not measured: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths per aquifer combining AR(1) drought persistence with CMIP6 warming and demand-supply coupling. Observed decline rates and water levels are measured from USGS monitoring wells. A low aquifer-average probability does not mean local wells are safe — the well table above frequently disagrees with the system average. Full method on the science page, and every input is traceable through the research index.