Lower Mississippi Delta · AR, MS, LA, MO, TN
Mississippi Embayment Aquifer
Is the Mississippi Embayment aquifer being over-pumped?
Mississippi Embayment Aquifer serves about 3 million people and underpins roughly $12B of agriculture across AR, MS, LA, MO, TN. This model puts its probability of reaching crisis conditions at 0.226% by 2100 (95% CI 0.188%–0.272%), making it stable at the aquifer-average level, which hides sub-regional stress. Expected crisis year is approximately 2074. Measured water levels are falling about 0.99 ft/yr.
Key figures
| Crisis probability by 2040 | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Crisis probability by 2060 | 0.048% |
| Crisis probability by 2100 | 0.226% (95% CI 0.188%–0.272%) |
| Expected crisis year | 2074 |
| Observed decline rate | 0.9890 ft/yr |
| Latest observed level | 29.31 (2025) |
| Year-to-year volatility | 7.642 |
| Drought persistence φ (AR(1)) | 0.6983 |
| Population served | 3M |
| Agricultural value | $12B |
| Modelled annual damage at crisis | $5.1B |
Monitoring wells in this system
Aquifer averages hide local stress. These are the Mississippi Embayment wells that appear in the 20 most at-risk sites nationally.
| Well | State | Decline (ft/yr) | P(crisis) 2060 | Expected crisis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19S12W13AAA1 | AR | 0.97 | 100.0% | 2026 |
How to read these numbers
Crisis probabilities are modelled, not measured: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths per aquifer combining AR(1) drought persistence with CMIP6 warming and demand-supply coupling. Observed decline rates and water levels are measured from USGS monitoring wells. A low aquifer-average probability does not mean local wells are safe — the well table above frequently disagrees with the system average. Full method on the science page, and every input is traceable through the research index.